inocta.iomatch
World Cup 2026 · Live public benchmark

Eight analysts. Every match. Called before kickoff.

Three AI systems built three different ways, their two stripped-down twins, a statistician, the betting market, and one human forecast all 104 matches of the 2026 World Cup. In public, with every miss on the record.

first results pending
The eight analysts

Live scoreboard

AnalystTypeBrierECEPicks / skippedHit rateCostCalls

Brier and ECE are the two main scores. Both measure whether the confidence numbers can be trusted. Lower is better. Some analysts skip a match instead of guessing, so picks and skips are shown to keep comparisons fair. Hit rate is fun context, not the headline. Numbers appear after the first scored matches.

How it works

1 · The hour before

About an hour before kickoff, every AI analyst gets the same match dossier and locks one prediction: winner, score, and how confident it is. Predictions are never revised.

2 · At kickoff

Picks lock. In that same final hour we record what the betting market believes, the hardest benchmark in sports. The human enters his pick on instinct alone, any time before kickoff.

3 · After the final whistle

Every analyst is scored. Not just right or wrong, but whether saying 70 percent confident really means winning 70 percent of the time. Misses are published, never buried.

Calibration

Calibration over accuracy.

When an analyst says 70 percent, does that pick win 70 percent of the time? That is what this chart answers (statisticians call it a reliability curve). Updated after every completed match. It appears after the first scored matchday.

Calibration
first results pending
Why an operations boutique predicts football matches

Solo, Pipeline, Council. The same three AI systems we put to work inside real businesses.

When an AI says it is 70 percent sure, calibration tells you whether to trust it. That number decides what you can delegate. Football is just the test track with a scoreboard nobody can argue with.