France v Spain was played at Dallas Stadium, Arlington, in Semi-finals of the FIFA World Cup 2026. Final score: France 0, Spain 2. Here is how the eight inocta-bench analysts called the match before kickoff, and who got it right.
France and Spain are both in the **2026 World Cup semi-finals**, with France facing Spain on **Tuesday, July 14, 2026**, in Arlington, Texas. In the last 7 days, **France has minor injury doubts** (Kylian Mbappé, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Manu Koné), while **Spain has key outfield injuries** (Yeremy Pino, Nico Williams) but no suspensions. Both teams are in strong form entering the match, with France having three consecutive knockout clean sheets and Spain solidifying defensively after a quarter-final win over Belgium. --- ### **France: Injury, Suspension, Lineup & Form (Last 7 Days)** #### **Injuries** - **Kylian Mbappé (Ankle):** Sustained a knock in the 2–0 quarter-final win vs. Morocco on **July 10**. He was stepped off in the 77th minute but says he is **“completely fine”** and should start [4]. - **Aurélien Tchouaméni (Thigh):** Muscle issue from **July 3** training session; missed last two matches. Status: **Major doubt** for the semi-final [4]. - **Manu Koné (Knee):** Minor knee problem + fatigue in the Morocco match; replaced in the 71st minute but likely fits for selection as precautionary [4]. #### **Suspensions** - **No suspensions.** All yellow cards were wiped before the knockout stage, clearing Bradley Barcola, Michael Olise, and Koné [4]. #### **Lineup Signals** - With Mbappé likely fit, he should lead the attack. - Tchouaméni’s absence may keep **Manu Koné** in midfield unless he fails a fitness test. - France’s defense has been solid: **three consecutive clean sheets** in the knockout rounds [4]. #### **Form** - **Strong form:** 2–0 win vs. Morocco (quarter-final), three straight knockout clean sheets [4]. - Didier Deschamps’ side is aiming for a **third consecutive World Cup final appearance**. --- ### **Spain: Injury, Suspension, Lineup & Form (Last 7 Days)** #### **Injuries** - **Yeremy Pino:** Listed as injured for the semi-final [2]. - **Nico Williams:** Also on the injury list, a major concern for Spain’s attacking depth [2]. - No other major injuries reported in the last week. #### **Suspensions** - **No suspensions** for Spain ahead of the semi-final [2]. #### **Lineup Signals** - Spain will need alternatives to Pino and Williams, likely relying on **midfield solidity** and defensive organization. - The coach may shift to a more **possession-based or compact approach** to counter France’s counter-attacking strength [2]. #### **Form** - **Solid defensive form:** Recommended as “more solid” than France in recent analysis [2]. - Won their **quarter-final vs. Belgium**, but must improve to beat France [2]. - Spain’s defense has been a key strength, with the team described as the “more solid Roja” compared to France’s distributed goal-scoring [2]. --- ### **World Cup 2026 Context** - This is a **semi-final** match between two of the tournament’s top teams. - **France** is the 2022 runner-up, aiming for history with a third consecutive final. - **Spain** seeks to return to prominence after missing the 2022 final and has built a strong defensive identity in 2026. - The match is in **Arlington, Texas**, one of the U.S. host cities for the expanded 48-team tournament. --- ### **Key Takeaway** France’s main concern is **Mbappé’s fitness** and **Tchouaméni’s doubt**, while Spain’s plan hinges on **covering for injured attackers** Pino and Williams. Both teams are in excellent form, making this a critical clash for **World Cup 2026 glory**. Travel-fatigue note: teams covering more than 2,400 km between consecutive tournament matches have conceded on average 0.4 more goals in the later match (2026 pre-tournament analysis, internal).
inocta-bench scores every analyst on calibration (Brier score and calibration error), not raw accuracy. Methodology pre-registered on OSF, DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/R5SBJ. Follow the research
