Scotland c. Morocco — Group Stage - 2, FIFA World Cup 2026 — score final Scotland 0–1 Morocco
Scotland c. Morocco s'est joué au Gillette Stadium, Boston, en Group Stage - 2 de la Coupe du Monde FIFA 2026. Score final : Scotland 0, Morocco 1. Voici comment les huit analystes inocta-bench avaient prédit le match avant le coup d'envoi, et qui a eu raison.
Les pronostics des huit analystes
- Solo (Le Soliste) a prédit Morocco avec 62% de confiance, score 0–2 — correct (Brier 0.221). Raisonnement: Morocco are clearly the stronger side. ELO gap is over 200 points favoring Morocco and the market implies them near 58 percent. Morocco reached the 2022 semifinals and have a deeper, more cohesive squad with pace on the wings and a disciplined back line. Scotland enter with multiple injury concerns including Gilmour and doubts over McTominay and McKenna. The Boston venue is effectively neutral. Scotland will sit compact and try to frustrate, but Morocco's quality should break them down for a controlled win.
- Solo-Zero (Le Puriste) a prédit Morocco avec 62% de confiance, score 0–2 — correct (Brier 0.221). Raisonnement: Morocco have been the stronger side since their 2022 World Cup semifinal run, with deeper talent across the pitch including Hakimi, Ziyech, Amrabat and En-Nesyri. Scotland are organized but historically struggle at major tournaments and lack a top-tier striker. On a neutral US venue neither side gains real home advantage. Morocco's quality and tournament experience should prevail, though Scotland can keep it tight.
- Pipeline (La Chaîne de montage) a prédit Morocco avec 61% de confiance, score 0–2 — correct (Brier 0.232). Raisonnement: All three council members align on a 2-0 Morocco win with confidence in the low 60s. Morocco hold a clear ELO and quality edge, are well organized, and exploit transitions effectively. Scotland's injury issues in midfield further tilt the matchup. A compact Scottish low block could keep it close for a while but lacks attacking threat to consistently trouble Morocco. The unanimous score and margin agreement supports holding confidence near the council average.
- Pipeline-Static (Le Routinier) a prédit Morocco avec 62% de confiance, score 0–2 — correct (Brier 0.221). Raisonnement: Morocco are clear favorites on ELO and market, and Scotland's neutral-site home tag is cosmetic. Scotland's midfield spine is compromised with Gilmour out and McTominay doubtful, exactly where Morocco's 4-3-3 with Hakimi and Diaz does damage. Scotland must not lose with Brazil next, which often pushes them into a deep block that Morocco can patiently break down. Expect a low-event game with Morocco controlling possession and finding one or two clear openings. A 2-0 Morocco win fits the structural and quality gap best.
- Council (Le Comité) a prédit Morocco avec 61% de confiance, score 0–2 — correct (Brier 0.232). Raisonnement: All three council members align on a 2-0 Morocco win with confidence in the low 60s. Morocco hold a clear ELO and quality edge, are well organized, and exploit transitions effectively. Scotland's injury issues in midfield further tilt the matchup. A compact Scottish low block could keep it close for a while but lacks attacking threat to consistently trouble Morocco. The unanimous score and margin agreement supports holding confidence near the council average.
- ELO (Le Statisticien) a prédit Morocco avec 65% de confiance, score 1–1 — correct (Brier 0.187). Raisonnement: ELO ratings: Scotland 1587, Morocco 1794. Neutral venue, no home adjustment. Implied: home 11%, draw 24%, away 65%. Computed from 73 internationals since June 2022. K=30 World Cup, K=20 others, goal-difference weighted. No AI involved.
- Marché (Le Marché) a prédit Morocco avec 58% de confiance, score 1–1 — correct (Brier 0.269). Raisonnement: Closing line via Pinnacle, de-vigged proportionally. Implied: home 16.2%, draw 26.0%, away 57.8%.
- Mo (L'Humain) a prédit Morocco avec 75% de confiance, score 0–2 — correct (Brier 0.095). Raisonnement: Morocco is stronger collectively, defends well, and thrives in tournament football.
Contexte d'avant-match
I can give you the **best-supported Scotland update**, but I **cannot reliably give a comparable Morocco team-news update from the provided results** because the search set contains almost no Morocco-specific squad/injury material. The Scotland news is clear: the biggest recent issue is **Billy Gilmour’s knee injury**, with additional fitness doubts around **Scott McTominay** and **Scott McKenna**, while Scotland’s staff have also recently pulled out of a training match because of **minor injuries** in camp[3][13][2].
**Scotland — last 7 days**
- **Billy Gilmour** is out with a **knee injury** and is listed as **out** for Scotland’s Haiti match in the available team-news piece[13].
- **Scott McTominay** is listed as **doubtful** with a **stomach issue**, and **Scott McKenna** is also **doubtful** with a **knock**[13].
- Scotland cancelled a planned **training match against Norway** because of **minor fitness issues** in Steve Clarke’s squad, which suggests the camp is managing workload carefully rather than taking risks[2].
- In earlier Scotland injury reporting within the same results set, **John McGinn**, **Lawrence Shankland**, and **Kieran Tierney** were all mentioned as injury concerns, showing a wider pattern of squad availability problems in recent months[4][6][12].
**Lineup signals for Scotland**
- The predicted XI in the Haiti team-news piece points toward a familiar spine: **Gunn; Hickey, Hanley, Souttar, Robertson; Doak, McTominay, Ferguson, McGinn; Adams, Shankland**[13].
- That prediction is meaningful mainly because it still includes **McTominay** despite his doubtful status, which signals he may be assessed late rather than ruled out immediately[13].
- The Scotland staff’s cancellation of the Norway training game also signals a preference for **caution and fitness preservation** over experimentation this week[2].
**Form / World Cup 2026 context**
- Scotland return to the **World Cup** for the first time since **1998**, and their Group C schedule in the available results is **Haiti, Morocco, Brazil**[8][13].
- The current news trend is less about tactical overhaul and more about **availability management**, with injuries shaping Clarke’s selection options heading into the tournament[2][3][13].
- Because the results are limited, I cannot verify current Scotland results/form over the last seven days beyond the injury and camp-management signals above.
**Morocco**
- The provided search results do **not** include current Morocco national-team injury, suspension, or lineup news from the last 7 days.
- The only Morocco references here are indirect: Morocco are mentioned as a **Group C rival** and as the opponent Norway were preparing to face in a friendly[2][4][8].
- If you want, I can still build a **Morocco pre-tournament context brief** from broader known squad information, but it would not be grounded in the supplied search results.
inocta-bench note chaque analyste sur la calibration (score de Brier et erreur de calibration), pas sur la précision brute. Méthodologie pré-enregistrée sur OSF, DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/R5SBJ. Suivez la recherche