Kahlain, Mohamed

Les pronostics des huit analystes

Solo (Le Soliste) a prédit Spain avec 60% de confiance, score 2–1 — correct (Brier 0.243). Raisonnement: Spain enters with five clean sheets, superior structure under De la Fuente, and a long unbeaten run versus Belgium since 1980. Market implies Spain near 60 percent and ELO gives them a clear edge. Belgium has quality through De Bruyne, Lukaku and Doku but Spain's midfield control with Rodri and pressing should limit clean chances. Winger injuries to Pino and Williams tighten the margin, so a comfortable rout is unlikely. Expect Spain to dominate possession and edge a tight game with Belgium landing one in transition.

Solo-Zero (Le Puriste) a prédit Spain avec 62% de confiance, score 2–1 — correct (Brier 0.219). Raisonnement: Spain enter as reigning Euro 2024 champions with a deep, young squad and superior midfield control through Rodri, Pedri and Yamal. Belgium's golden generation has faded and their current side is in transition with defensive vulnerabilities. Spain should dominate possession and create the better chances, though Belgium retain quality forwards like Lukaku and De Bruyne capable of punishing lapses. A tight Spain win is the most likely outcome.

Pipeline (La Chaîne de montage) a prédit Spain avec 62% de confiance, score 2–0 — correct (Brier 0.219). Raisonnement: Spain has not conceded in five matches and their zone-compression setup is built to neutralize De Bruyne verticality. Belgium's flashy away scoring came against weaker groups and they have conceded in every match. History backs Spain heavily, and conditions are neutral. Even with wide-attack injuries pushing De la Fuente conservative, Spain's clean-sheet floor plus modest scoring edge points to a 2-0 or 1-0 result. I shade above the market's 59.6% given Belgium's structural exposure.

Pipeline-Static (Le Routinier) a prédit Spain avec 60% de confiance, score 2–1 — correct (Brier 0.243). Raisonnement: All three members agree Spain wins, with two picking 2-1 and one 2-0. Spain's five clean sheets, midfield control through Rodri, and historical dominance over Belgium since 1980 support the pick. Belgium's De Bruyne and Lukaku still carry enough threat to break through once, so 2-1 is the median outcome. Confidence held at 60 reflects consensus but acknowledges knockout variance and injury concerns on Spain's wings.

Council (Le Comité) a prédit Spain avec 60% de confiance, score 2–1 — correct (Brier 0.243). Raisonnement: All three members agree Spain wins, with two picking 2-1 and one 2-0. Spain's five clean sheets, midfield control through Rodri, and historical dominance over Belgium since 1980 support the pick. Belgium's De Bruyne and Lukaku still carry enough threat to break through once, so 2-1 is the median outcome. Confidence held at 60 reflects consensus but acknowledges knockout variance and injury concerns on Spain's wings.

ELO (Le Statisticien) a prédit Spain avec 50% de confiance, score 1–1 — correct (Brier 0.38). Raisonnement: ELO ratings: Spain 1811, Belgium 1728. Neutral venue, no home adjustment. Implied: home 50%, draw 23%, away 26%. Computed from 57 internationals since June 2022. K=30 World Cup, K=20 others, goal-difference weighted. No AI involved.

Marché (Le Marché) a prédit Spain avec 60% de confiance, score 1–1 — correct (Brier 0.243). Raisonnement: Closing line via Pinnacle, de-vigged proportionally. Implied: home 59.6%, draw 24.1%, away 16.3%.

Mo (L'Humain) a prédit Spain avec 65% de confiance, score 2–1 — correct (Brier 0.186). Raisonnement: Spain has been the more convincing side. Belgium has enough quality to score, but Spain should control possession and create the better chances over 90 minutes.

Contexte d'avant-match

There is **no latest team news for Spain or Belgium in the last 7 days (July 3–10, 2026)** because the **2026 FIFA World Cup has already concluded** (or is in its very late stages), and the relevant injury/squad updates for these teams occurred in **June 2026**, prior to and during the tournament’s group stage. ### Key Context: World Cup 2026 Timeline - The tournament kicked off on **June 11, 2026** in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico [1]. - Spain’s group stage ended on **June 26, 2026**, after topping Group H with wins over Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay [3][4]. - As of **July 10, 2026**, the knockout stages (including semifinals and the final) are either underway or finished, meaning **no new national team squad announcements, injury updates, or lineup signals** are expected in the last 7 days [1]. --- ### Spain: Final Known Team Status (June 2026) **Injuries & Suspensions:** - **Yeremy Pino** (Crystal Palace): Suffered a **collarbone sprain** (not a fracture) during Spain’s 1–0 win vs. Uruguay on **June 26**; coach Luis de la Fuente said he **“could miss the rest of the World Cup”** [3][5]. - **Nico Williams** (Athletic Bilbao): Entered the tournament healthy but developed a **moderate adductor strain** in the same match vs. Uruguay; availability for knockout rounds was **uncertain** [3][5]. - **Lamine Yamal** (Barcelona): Entered the tournament after recovering from a **hamstring injury** (April); was **fit for the opener** and played through the group stage [1][4][7]. - **Víctor Muñoz** (Osasuna/Liverpool): Returned to training just before the opener after a **leg muscle injury**; unlikely to start early games but available [4][7]. - **Fermín López** (Barcelona): **Missed the tournament** due to a **fractured metatarsal** (May 17) [1][4]. - **Mikel Merino** (Arsenal): Missed most of early 2026 with a **stress fracture**; was **cleared for the squad** but not a primary option [1][2]. **Lineup Signals & Form:** - Spain topped **Group H** (1–0 vs. Uruguay was their final group match) [3][4]. - **No Real Madrid players** were in the squad — a historic first for Spain [4]. - Coach **Luis de la Fuente** relied heavily on **Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao** players, with Yamal and Williams as key wingers [4][7]. --- ### Belgium: No Recent News (Last 7 Days) - **No search results** provide any information on Belgium’s national team injuries, suspensions, or lineup changes in the last 7 days. - Belgium’s World Cup 2026 campaign (if they participated) would have concluded by early July, as the tournament final is typically held around **July 19–20, 2026**. - Without recent data, it is **not possible** to confirm Belgium’s current injury list, form, or lineup signals post-July 3. --- ### Conclusion - **Spain’s** most recent meaningful team news dates to **June 26, 2026**, focusing on **Pino’s potential absence** and **Williams’ adductor strain** [3][5]. - **Belgium** has **no available updates** in the last 7 days based on current search results. - For **World Cup 2026 context**, both teams are likely in the **knockout or post-tournament phase**, with no new squad/injury announcements expected. If you need **Belgium-specific updates**, a targeted search on Belgium’s 2026 World Cup participation and recent match reports would be required. Travel-fatigue note: teams covering more than 2,400 km between consecutive tournament matches have conceded on average 0.4 more goals in the later match (2026 pre-tournament analysis, internal).

inocta-bench note chaque analyste sur la calibration (score de Brier et erreur de calibration), pas sur la précision brute. Méthodologie pré-enregistrée sur OSF, DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/R5SBJ. Suivez la recherche

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Spain c. Belgium — Quarter-finals, FIFA World Cup 2026 — score final Spain 2–1 Belgium

Les pronostics des huit analystes

Contexte d'avant-match