Haiti c. Scotland — Group Stage - 1, FIFA World Cup 2026 — score final Haiti 0–1 Scotland
Haiti c. Scotland s'est joué au Gillette Stadium, Boston, en Group Stage - 1 de la Coupe du Monde FIFA 2026. Score final : Haiti 0, Scotland 1. Voici comment les huit analystes inocta-bench avaient prédit le match avant le coup d'envoi, et qui a eu raison.
Les pronostics des huit analystes
- Solo (Le Soliste) a prédit Scotland avec 58% de confiance, score 0–2 — correct (Brier 0.266). Raisonnement: Closing line strongly favors Scotland at roughly 63 percent, reflecting clear quality and depth advantage with McTominay, Robertson and Premier League experience throughout. Haiti lost midfielder Pierre and arrive with squad disruption including visa issues. ELO sees it closer due to limited Haiti data, but bookmakers price the talent gap accurately. Scotland should control territory and win second balls in mild Boston weather. Haiti can threaten on transition, so a clean sheet is uncertain, but Scotland's organization under Clarke should deliver a narrow win.
- Solo-Zero (Le Puriste) a prédit Scotland avec 68% de confiance, score 0–2 — correct (Brier 0.154). Raisonnement: Scotland are ranked significantly higher than Haiti and have deeper squad quality from European leagues. Haiti has talented attackers but defensive frailty has been a persistent issue. Neutral venue in Boston removes any real home advantage for Haiti. Scotland should control possession and create enough chances to win, though Haiti's pace on the break makes a blowout unlikely.
- Pipeline (La Chaîne de montage) a prédit Scotland avec 57% de confiance, score 0–2 — correct (Brier 0.279). Raisonnement: All three council members agree Scotland wins, citing superior squad depth, European-based quality, and tactical structure under Clarke. McTominay and Robertson provide midfield and leadership edge. Haiti's loss of Pierre weakens defensive balance, though their transition threat keeps a clean sheet uncertain. Score predictions cluster around a one to two goal Scotland margin. Confidence stays moderate because the ELO model sees the match closer than the market and opening games often produce cagey results.
- Pipeline-Static (Le Routinier) a prédit Scotland avec 62% de confiance, score 0–2 — correct (Brier 0.218). Raisonnement: Scotland has the clear squad quality edge with a Premier League and top-five league spine against a thinner Haiti pool. Pierre's injury weakens Haiti's midfield screen, and the centre-back replacement is not like-for-like. Venue is functionally neutral and weather removes any heat lever Haiti could exploit. Scotland needs points with Brazil and Morocco looming, so they will push the tempo. Market price of 63% is fair and I align with it. Two-goal margin reflects Scotland's territorial control and Haiti's defensive reshuffle without overreaching on scoreline variance.
- Council (Le Comité) a prédit Scotland avec 57% de confiance, score 0–2 — correct (Brier 0.279). Raisonnement: All three council members agree Scotland wins, citing superior squad depth, European-based quality, and tactical structure under Clarke. McTominay and Robertson provide midfield and leadership edge. Haiti's loss of Pierre weakens defensive balance, though their transition threat keeps a clean sheet uncertain. Score predictions cluster around a one to two goal Scotland margin. Confidence stays moderate because the ELO model sees the match closer than the market and opening games often produce cagey results.
- ELO (Le Statisticien) a prédit Haiti avec 40% de confiance, score 1–1 — incorrect (Brier 0.486). Raisonnement: ELO ratings: Haiti 1582, Scotland 1567. Neutral venue, no home adjustment. Implied: home 40%, draw 23%, away 36%. Computed from 44 internationals since June 2022. K=30 World Cup, K=20 others, goal-difference weighted. No AI involved.
- Marché (Le Marché) a prédit Scotland avec 63% de confiance, score 1–1 — correct (Brier 0.206). Raisonnement: Closing line via Pinnacle, de-vigged proportionally. Implied: home 16.3%, draw 21.0%, away 62.7%.
- Mo (L'Humain) a prédit Scotland avec 70% de confiance, score 0–2 — correct (Brier 0.136). Raisonnement: Better midfield, more tournament experience. Haiti can fight, but Scotland should control it.
Contexte d'avant-match
Here’s the **latest team-news picture** for **Haiti** and **Scotland** in the build-up to their **World Cup 2026** opener, focusing on the last 7 days: **Haiti have a confirmed injury loss in midfield, while Scotland’s main pre-match signals are from predicted lineups and confirmed team-news previews rather than major late injuries or bans**.[2][5][1]
- **Haiti: Leverton Pierre ruled out**
- Haiti have officially lost midfielder **Leverton Pierre** for the World Cup after the federation said medical checks found a **right adductor injury**; he will miss the tournament and was replaced by **Garven Metusala**.[5][3]
- Another report describes the issue as a **right Achilles tendon** injury, but both reports agree on the key point: **Pierre is out and Metusala is the replacement**.[2][3][5]
- This is a significant blow because Pierre was expected to provide experience and defensive balance in midfield for matches against **Scotland, Brazil, and Morocco**.[2][5]
- **Haiti: lineup and selection signals**
- The call-up of **Garven Metusala**, a centre-back, suggests Haiti may be looking for **more defensive cover** in the squad structure after Pierre’s withdrawal.[2][5]
- Haiti’s recent pre-tournament reporting also indicates they have been working through **final squad adjustments** and have already been in camp preparing for the World Cup, which points to a settled core with only late fitness changes.[7][10]
- Form-wise, Haiti arrived with momentum from a **4-0 friendly win over New Zealand**, though they also had a **0-1 loss to Peru** in a recent match reported in team coverage.[9][10]
- **Scotland: team news signals**
- The strongest Scotland-specific item in the provided results is a **confirmed/predicted lineup preview** for the Haiti match, indicating the focus is on how Scotland will set up rather than a major injury crisis.[1]
- The available result does not name a fresh Scotland suspension or major last-week injury setback, so the safest reading is that Scotland’s pre-match news is being driven mainly by **selection decisions and predicted XI discussion** rather than a late unavailable player list.[1]
- **World Cup 2026 context**
- This is Haiti’s **first World Cup since 1974**, so squad availability matters heavily for them, especially with a difficult group that also includes **Brazil and Morocco**.[9][10]
- Haiti’s lineup stability has been affected by late squad issues, including Pierre’s absence, which makes the Scotland match an important early test of their depth.[2][5][10]
If you want, I can turn this into a **match-preview style XI watchlist** for both teams, with the **most likely starters and tactical implications** based on the available team-news signals.
inocta-bench note chaque analyste sur la calibration (score de Brier et erreur de calibration), pas sur la précision brute. Méthodologie pré-enregistrée sur OSF, DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/R5SBJ. Suivez la recherche